Quite a fake-out yesterday, with VIX not following through above the Q2P, and IWM healthy rebound which hurt on the hedge. At least INDA up!

Congestion is the theme here:

SPY, DIA and VTI above Q2P but resistance at AprP; also, all 3 above D50 but below D20 MAs.

VIX closed fractionally below all pivots again which removes the semi trouble alert, but move lower is not clear rejection enough to be fully bullish. That said, XIV looks ready to get slammed with clear resistance on the YR2 level - this would be bearish for stocks.

I don't know whether Friday will be up or down for stocks, but rationale for QQQ hedge was huge outperformance in Q1 and so I was thinking rebalance might hurt. It hasn't and remains 2017 USA main index leader above all pivots. Taking off hedge goes to 10 longs 4 short hedges 60% net. The IWM is tough but below the Q2P so I will hold it.

ps: One sentiment measure is surprisingly bearish here, considering stability of market. More on that this weekend on the blog.

SPY, VIX and XIV below.