An interesting day from The Pivotal Perspective.

USA main indexes were mostly weaker, yet held more important support. By this I mean SPY, DIA and VTI all under monthly pivots for the first time since early November 2016; but on the same day, tests or near tests of Q2Ps were successful. On the plus side, QQQ held AprP. On the negative side, IWM broke Q2P.

Crucially, VIX & XIV did not confirm weakness in stocks. VIX could have closed above the monthly or Q2P, but didn't, and stayed below all pivots. XIV held AprP as support, and so remained above all pivots. Both of these tend to be bullish for stocks.

However, GLD is above all pivots, and TLT is above a quarterly pivot for the first time since the election.

Global stocks - ACWI, EEM, FXI, INDA, RSX and EWZ - all above all pivots. In this sense, conclusions reached in quarterly and monthly chart analysis exactly on track. "I think institutions and technicals agree - global stocks are the place to be, and right now INDA is leading the pack followed by EEM."

So, with portfolio 100% net long and 30% global, what is right allocation and setup here? I don't want to reduce below 100% until VIX and XIV confirm; but at the same time, it is possible to swap things that are below a monthly pivot for what is above. Thus, I think the best move is to cut XLF (below Q2P and AprP), and swap out for EEM (above all pivots); and then cut 1 SPY (below monthly pivot) and swap out for EWZ (above all pivots).

QQQ held its AprP but will hold the hedge one more day.

SPY, EEM and VIX below. I'll try to get full chart workup on the blog soon.