4/26/2017

Today was a trickier day than most to call. All five USA main indexes are above all pivots, yet there was some selling from a few resistance levels and previous close highs. We also know that by valuation 2398 SPX (18x forward earnings measured by 10 week MA) is going to be tough to get through. In addition, safe havens were up.

There is a legitimate case for taking the leverage off, but given lack of bullish sentiment and lack of daily RSI overbought readings I'm going to chance it and hold.

If you think differently, here are the -s:
SPX 1HR2 & 2017 close high rejection (SPX within 10 points of key target level today of YR1 2407)
INDU AprR1 test and fade
RUT Q2R1 resistance (not rejection yet though)
VTI AprR1 near tag

VIX reversal bar from key low area
GLD & TLT strength

+s
In addition to USA mains above all pivots, where bulls have earned benefit of doubt - 
VIX below all pivots, XIV above all pivots and holding above YR2
Daily RSIs not overbought
No bullish extremes in sentiment yet  

I'd just rather see all those YR1s on more bullish sentiment for a better top. See the blog for details.

SPX, SPY, VIX and XIV below. 

 

26 10 SPX D.png
26 11 SPY D.png
26 12 VIX D.png