3/22/2017

Edge to bulls. SPY held its MarP, and let's not forget DIA above and QQQ well above. That means 3 of 5 above all pivots. IWM broke its MarP for the 2nd time yesterday and had fast trip down to below MarS1, so this is back to 2017 USA lagger. VTI held and NYA mananged to hold by two hairs. Still, most USA main indexes above all pivots (all means monthly, quarterly, half-year and yearly, not daily/weekly). Still - not that bearish. 

But VIX is clearly above its MarP and that is a warning sign, along with XIV below its YR2. 

Anecdotally, it seemed like a lot of vocal bears out there.

The last Total weekly view: "Upside for stocks likely limited, but pullbacks will be bought. This has been the view all of March."

Setups today are a bit tough with the mixed signals. Not clear enough to go fully long, but maybe good to buy this dip. Taking off SPY hedge (put on 3/2) for a nice alpha move, leaving 9 longs and 1 short hedge for 80% net. 

SPY and VIX below.

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