12/4/2017

Today is one of those days with coordinated action among all USA main indexes plus VIX and other safe havens. That means action.

Thankfully, the hedges recently suggested are working fabulously - SMH & FXI shorts both 11/27, then QQQ recommended as short hedge on 11/29-30 on any bounce back towards YR3.

From 11/30 Daily comment on the QQQ YR3 short idea: "...I don't know the reward, but the trade has very tight risk against the YR3 level on NDX/QQQ combined. Still holding SMH and FXI hedges. This reduces overall exposure - all trends are up, but the cost of this position is minimal if wrong, and potentially significant rewards if right." 

Today one would be very warranted to add to that position with QQQ the only USA main index below its DecP.

From here also watching TLT to see if YP can have "look of support" - it cleared YP fractionally today - because this could be a very non-consensus long into year end. The unclear signals occasionally work, but I think better to wait for clear signals and then take meaningful action.

So, the damage:

SPY Q4R2 rejection
QQQ YR3 rejection and DecP break
IWM 2HR2 rejection and Q4R1 break
NYA YR2 rejection; VTI Q4R2 rejection

VIX above DecP

All charts plus TLT below. 

4 13 NYA D.png