11/21/2017

As VIX and the daily comment tipped off yesterday, indexes cleared resistance. "Certainly the safe haven moves point to direction of indexes clearing resistance in the near future."

SPX consolidated in the YR2 / 2HR2 / Q4R2 cluster from 10/20-11/20 and the only damage was a very mild pullback to NovP which quickly bounced and zoomed to new highs a few session later. Today was the first day with a convincing close with resistance "looking like" support, especially so on SPY.

It is true I have been expecting more of a pullback from this SPX YR2 and NDX YR3 area, and today that was really proven wrong. That said, hedges have been a mixed bag - IWM short, possibly EWZ short and UVXY all gained; SPY, EEM, and very recent SMH shorts along with GLD longs were small losses.

So yes, I would have made more if fully committed to the bull case or bought aggressively on last week's low on the November pivot. Also keep in mind that I have been pointing to China especially KWEB from Dec 2016, and more recently FXI in August, as favorite longs, along with some longs in INDA as well. 

FXI today +2.68% so these little sub -.5% dings don't bother me when main portfolio winner is up 5X+ that today, and SMH per top of buy list in August is up 20%+.

New position: TLT. Rally above YP that held as support. Interesting trade. Probably from here I will try to emphasize safe haven longs more than index shorts, because the longs tend to be easier; except in the cases of a very good risk-reward UVXY setup. 

Levels to watch from here are NDX/QQQ YR3 and RUT/IWM YR1.

SPY, QQQ, FXI, TLT, VIX and XIV below.

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