For those who have been expecting some broader weakness in markets, finally - but even today came back quite impressively and there could have been a lot more damage.
From the latest USA main index post on the blog: "SPX / SPY testing YR2 / 2HR2 combo 2576-82, with SPX holding this area as support a couple times last week. Bullish to be holding level, but anything lower would look like yearly level rejection and open the door to NovP at minimum."
And that is exactly where SPX went, as NovP was near the lows; Q4R1 also nearby on SPX acted as support. With daily RSI the lowest since late August, near the bottom of the daily BB, all but the 10MA still with rising slopes, and both a monthly and quarterly level holding, I am thinking some bounce is the next move. Ideally this is a weak bounce and goes lower but that is just opinion right now. The important thing is that NovP held and SPX/SPY remains above all pivots when it could have broken.
DIA, QQQ and VTI remain above all pivots as well. NYA was part of the tipoff for the downdraft, below its monthly pivot for the first time since 9/5 on 11/13. But it is the global names dropping most, and as this was part of my expectations for the week it was easy to take some gains on the remaining FXI longs (bailed on INDA earlier).
Though SPX held, we don't have a good buy signal. VIX is above the 2HP and XIV broke its NovP. XIV may rally from here with rising D50MA and NovS1, but again, i'm thinking some bounce and another downdraft. I'll remain cautions with VIX above the 2HP; but rejection back under that would be a different story.
TLT again rallying to the YP, a key level to watch for tomorrow. In contrast metals this week have been terrible which considering indexes stock and DXY is rather odd. TLT could be taking the lead for key safe haven trade - in addition to volatility, of course. UVXY rec'd 11/8 on twitter +16% so far. A decent enough position on that makes up for a lot of other portfolio, if simultaneously convinced of short term weakness while most USA indexes remain above all pivots. A great move.
SPX, SPY, VIX, XIV and TLT below.
