USA main indexes continue to power up, with all 5 above all pivots and above all MAs. Interestingly QQQ has turned into the weak link of the second half and so far this is continuing in Q4. Also, none of these are currently at any pivot resistance levels as IWM rallied above its 2HR1 today. Next levels up for most others are OctR1s, and then more important Q4R1s above that.
Safe havens are all saying bullish for risk assets: VIX continued lower, XIV rallied above its 2HR1 (a level to watch highlighted in the last Total market view); TLT all of a sudden under YP, Q4P and OctP, only saved by the 2HP. AGG fell below its YP slightly, though not yet enough to be rejection. GLD weak under its Q4P and OctP, with GDX same, and SLV below all pivots.
A few global indexes have weakened in pivot status as $DXY rallies. ACWI, FXI, KWEB and RSX remain above all pivots; EEM and EWZ below OctPs so far, and INDA has weakened as warned and currently below its Q4P. Actually, INDA is the only stock index I track that is below its Q4P.
$TNX just made its low of the year a mere 3 weeks ago, and has rallied back above its D200 moving average. Any higher and it will reclaim status of above all pivots, something it has enjoyed only a few trading days since April. If this scenario plays out, financials will continue to deliver up and metals will continue to drop.
Back to USA main indexes - they seem a bit too good to be true here, and the more the crowd gets excited the more likely the momentum will slow and then fade. RSI on daily SPY is the highest since March. ISEE just put in its second highest reading of the past 12 months, only exceeded by 7/11/17, which wasn't really a big turn. But several other spike highs have been near decent trading tops. The problem is that no major indexes are against levels to hedge against, and the safe havens look terrible. If XIV dropped back under its 2HR1 i might try a trade on that.
PS: I suggested a partial USO exit at minimum last week based on YP rejection. So far correct to have taken gains in USO.
SPY, XIV, INDA, GLD, USO below.
