I must say the market is continuing a bit stronger than planned this week, with SPY lifting above Q4R1, DIA lifting above YR2 (key level!), and QQQ continuing above its 2HR1.

But if I had thoughts about chasing long up here, forget it. VIX is now speaking pretty loudly. As loudly as it can, while remaining below all pivots: "Don't chase!" Smart money is starting to more seriously hedge.

I don't always have the backtests on my ideas but usually they are pretty well thought out. As it turns out here is a Tweet citing a study confirming - SPX up 2 days in a row with VIX also up 2 days in a row is bearish near term.

As of yesterday I said i was not pulling the trigger on big counter-trend positions with INDU above YR2, and so far that has been the right move. But i think a turn here is getting very close, and could come suddenly. Be ready.

Although of course one could simply raise cash and buy a pullback, those with more bearish inclinations could think about index puts, volatility ETFs, IWM short, or other shorts in addition to safe haven longs on GLD and TLT that were suggested from last week.

For Wednesday, watch SPY OctR2 155.53, any move back under INDU/DIA YR2 22937, then QQQ Q4R1 149.20, IWM 2HR2 149.24 (1 day break, leading down again), and VTI Q4R1 131.53. All charts and VIX below.