Glass half full: SPY and SPX above pivot and moving average support, as SepS2 and daily 100MAs held held for both. Small down bars show weak selling and buyers coming in; also, positive divergences on RSI on the smaller timeframes (1H, 2H, etc). VIX still below Q3P 18.28.

Glass half empty: main index current leader NDX / QQQ stopped cold at its SepP retest, which has been resistance for 4 of the last 4 trading days if you count .13 on QQQ as close enough for one of those days; otherwise, 3 of 4 tags of the level. Most USA main indexes could not maintain bounce back inside daily Bollinger bands. XIV dropped below YP.

Others +s: IWM above SepS1, VTI holding SepS2 and D100MA.

Other -s: DIA breaking D100, TLT (which seems to be leading this drop) very weak bounce on crucial support; oil (back under 3 / 4 pivots on CL1 contract, under all pivots USO).

We'll see what happens but thus far I see no reason to change my preferred scenario of probably -5% in SPX.

SPY, QQQ and VIX below.