8/10/2016

So far today's drop is not anything to get too worried about. I'm talking USA mains here, and specifically the SPX set. Not oil, EWZ, RSX, etc. 

SPY closed at 217.64. The YR1 is 217.63. Not a coincidence! 

+s
SPY and ES1 still holding YR1 as support
QQQ still holding Q3R2 as support (by a similar fraction as SPY above)
VIX below all pivots
TLT failed to clear AugP, and really could have consider 2016 as a whole

-s
Oil back under all pivots, may drag down
VIX kinda sorta reversal bar
GLD above all pivots (safe haven strength)
XIV rejection of AugR1

The way I played it: I wasn't sure oil was going to break 2HP before I left screens for a while, so took a small short on RSX based on my scan this morning. See this post, which was actually written and posted before the open. No charts to prove that however. But if you look at next post that came after, you will see a TLT chart from early in the day. Anyway, you could call this RSX short a hedge against my EEM portion long (trimmed yesterday as noted). 

If TLT reclaims its AugP, then geez, have to buy and/or cover the short if you are in that. Small GLD long position, holding only above the AugP. And if SPY any lower tomorrow, then there is the decision to take some profits or put on a very low cost hedge. By low cost I mean a close back above the YR1 means take hedge off. This will probably be a fraction of a 1%. 

SPX set below.