Yesterday: "Most USA mains don't look too bad here, dropping on to Q3P / JulPs and so far holding as support. After hours, ES is even closer to testing the level. ... SPY below the Q3P would probably be trouble."

Well you didn't have to worry because SPY ES SPX all held their Q2P / JulP combos near exact for a decent rally off the lows. Yet I'd feel better about the rally with IWM and XIV above their Q3Ps.

Last week the key buy was very near the INDU YP as SPX set broke their YP slightly and recovered. This week the key buy was the Q2P / JulP combo. See the pattern here?

Interestingly, as "analysts" are starting to sound calls for TNX 1.0 (the % not a computer program version), I am increasingly wondering about a major turn in bonds based on major levels and RSI. TNX came very close to reaching YS2 today and remember the big turns that seem impossible happen on the big levels, just like the USA stock low of the year on RUT YS2 exact. Remember, resistance levels are better used as profit areas on longs instead of shorts - but if you want to take stabs at speculative trades (ie short above all pivots), then multiple RSI extremes and levels are the place to try. Watch reactions on these levels:

JulR1 reached today, then Q3R1 just slightly higher 143.64 which would be a good tag area for a setup. If above that then I'll start thinking 2HR1 / YR2 combo 145-148.

Lastly, the other interesting thing we saw today was biotechs leading. It has been almost a year since that has happened! IBB tried to clear its Q2P 3x in Q2 only to go back down to test the low. Today is another try above a QP - is this the charm?

SPY, IWM, XIV, TLT and IBB all below!