7/18/2016

Several +s today:
SPX closed above its YP 2163; the second time with a close above the level (7/14 was less than a point, but still above)
QQQ, IWM and NYA all closed above Q3R1s
EEM launched from its YP, the 3rd consecutive day above
All these are bullish for risk assets

?s are:
INDU stalling with YR1 just above
ES1 continuous contract YR1 still exact on the high (the only version of the SPX set where the YR1 is currently above the price)

-s:
Sentiment getting up there now -
Daily put-call 10MA near the April 2016 lows, which were the lowest in 2 years
AAII managers also much higher exposure and if considering not Nov-Feb then even more relatively high
And today, ISEE closed at 156, the 2nd highest value this year. Most recent high spike was 138 on 6/8... yup. 

Until the market is entirely taken over by machines, the crowd is usually bearish on the lows and bullish at the highs. 

I think chances of some shakeout have increased... the big levels are INDU set YR1 and SPX set YR1, still close enough to be in play, and this is even more the case as daily RSIs near 70.

SPY, SPX, ES1 below.