7/12/2016

SPY tagged Q3R1 / JulR1 combo today, a very fast move of only 5 trading days from holding Q3P / JulP exact on 7/6. As it turned out, DIA, QQQ, IWM and VTI all tagged their Q3R1 / JulR1s too. 

Is this a trading high? 

Well, there were definitely major highs in 2015 (and other years) when multiple USA mains reached quarterly resistance levels. But let's put the move in context. Major indexes just broke out to a new high, most after 1 year or more. Safe havens are coming down hard. Aside from intraday timeframes (and quarterly charts), nothing is overbought - meaning daily, weekly and monthly charts all room to move up per RSI. We aren't seeing sentiment at toppy extremes yet, nor are we at a valuation level per the recently revised method. We do have a timing window of 7/13-15, and sometimes these are +/- 1 day, so maybe, but... 

Although all 5 USA mains are at resistance, my bet is slight pause or consolidation move, or higher. In other words, don't sweat it. 

Also: Did I just get the bond top?

7/6: "Interestingly, as "analysts" are starting to sound calls for TNX 1.0 (the % not a computer program version), I am increasingly wondering about a major turn in bonds based on major levels and RSI. TNX came very close to reaching YS1 today and remember the big turns that seem impossible happen on the big levels, just like the USA stock low of the year on RUT YS2 exact. Remember, resistance levels are better used as profit areas on longs instead of shorts - but if you want to take stabs at speculative trades (ie short above all pivots), then multiple RSI extremes and levels are the place to try. Watch reactions on these levels: JulR1 reached today, then Q3R1 just slightly higher 143.64 which would be a good tag area for a setup. If above that then I'll start thinking 2HR1 / YR2 combo 145-148." (TLT high 143.62 so far.)

7/9: with TLT closing at 143.59 on 7/8: "RSI in historical extreme area and some reaction down more likely. Daily chart already at Q3R1, with RSI fully OB (overbought) every day this quarter so far. Pushing higher despite the move in stocks on Friday is quite remarkable. From here a move to 145-148 looks very doable, but I'd kinda rather see a shakeout with a reaction down from this Q3R1 first."

SPY and TLT below.