SPY and other main indexes dropped from the JunR1s today, with SPY, DIA and QQQ barely registering as negative while IWM and NYA had more substantial declines.
Historically speaking, monthly resistance are not where big tops are made - for those we look to quarterly, half-year and yearly resistance levels. And yet, we have run into a valuation level of 2121 on SPX as pointed out here, 3 of 4 sentiment readings are suddenly showing excess bullishness, and stocks may have made a trading high in the timing window of 6/7-9 that I have been listing in the Total market view posts since the end of May.
The market has certainly been strong since the February lows and admit it acts like it wants to test the 2015 highs. But with strength of safe havens and other factors listed above, perhaps we are due for a shakeout of the weak hands. Levels to watch remain VIX JunP, XIV YP, TLT YR1, and perhaps IWM YP on a re-test.
As I said yesterday, it is odd to see TLT so strong, along with GLD back above all pivots, with stock indexes also pushing towards the highs. But anyone who put spare cash to work on TLT 5/31-6/1 is not complaining! It only matters to own what is going up.