Bearish action today.
6/9 Daily SPY: "The market has certainly been strong since the February lows and admit it acts like it wants to test the 2015 highs. But with strength of safe havens and other factors listed above, perhaps we are due for a shakeout of the weak hands."
6/10 Daily SPY: "But with the combination of valuation and sentiment factors, along with the incredible safe havens, perhaps we just saw a more important top on monthly R1s."
6/11 Safe havens: "In other words, all 4 of these safe havens sending warnings about risk."
6/12 Total market view: "But a few other components of my Total market view are considering if we just saw a turn of more significance."
Just about everything that I listed in bearish scenarios happened:
RUT / IWM broke 1HP, so we have a long term level rejection
QQQ broke JunP, leading down
NYA closed fractionally below JunP as well
TLT lifting from YR1, very bullish
GLD above all pivots (no change, already strong)
VIX getting in gear - seriously - with jump above JunP on Friday and close above Q2P today!
XIV slammed with huge YP / 1HP rejection over the last 2 days
So the warning the safe havens sent on Friday continued in force today. VIX action is especially disturbing for longs, because basically it is saying (my interpretation) is that the market should be much lower.
For now SPY and DIA remain above all pivots so the leaders will have to hold to save the market. If those go then we have a real pullback on our hands - who knows how far it will go, but more than a 'dip.'
SPY, XIV and VIX below.