5/25/2016

I can rattle off many reasons why the market shouldn't rally further - valuation remains a concern, fundamentals probably not strong enough, then let's add election concerns & FOMC. On top of those, daily chart Bollinger band breakouts tend not to last more than 2-3 days, so the next normal move would be back into the range. More important to me, the timing window listed from end May of of 5/26-31 looks to be turning into a high. 

All that said - all 5 main USA indexes are above all pivots, and not yet at resistance.* Perhaps we will tag the monthly R1s but the more important Q2R1s are higher. VIX is below all pivots. GLD is already down, and today TLT closed under its MayP as well. This is all very healthy action, and the correct view is to be bullish on stocks. 

SPY reached weekly R2 exact on the highs, and 1 hour chart is overbought, so some digestion would be the normal move. This does not change the larger bullish view. 

*5/28 Correction: all 5 USA indexes are above MayPs, but RTY / IWM is still below its YP & 1HP so that statement not accurate. At the time, the Tech set (NDX COMPQ QQQ NQ) and NYA both jumped above YPs so still a valid point.