Whoops! For the second time this month, SPY broke its MayP without reaching any resistance level. The most frustrating thing about any technical method is the possibility for whipsaw, which is why I try to integrate other factors per my Total market view posts (if interested search on the FAQ page).

As of 4/20 I felt very confident in a trading high and recommended a hedging trade, but your management of that depends on what you used. VIX vehicles or puts had to exit quickly due to deterioration, but if you are a portfolio manager or savvy trader and hedging out via futures or inverse ETFs then basically you nailed the high and could still be in that hedged position.

Anyway, as of 4/29 I thought there was an increased chance that we had seen a major top because RTY / IWM reached long term pivots and was rejected, NDX broke its YP again, and the current contract in oil failed at its 1HP. This was together with several other concerns as outlined in this post.

Interestingly, SPY (and DIA and NYA) have been above all pivots twice in May, only to fail twice. Usually second moves are definitive but here we have had two moves above the MayP and two breaks. This starts to fall into the chop category.

Lastly, and I hope this isn't too annoying, but consider the timing factor. I had 5/9 as a key date. There has been a 5/6L and a 5/10H making this very inconclusive, as both of these are just 1 trading day off. My preference is that 5/9 +1 turned into a key high on 5/10 and next move is lower, but the market has been stronger than I have thought many times in the past. The MayPs will hopefully make a definitive move from here. Also, especially looks for the "look of rejection" with volume tomorrow. If so, next larger move should be down. If pivots recover, especially with VIX below all pivots, I will have to scratch my bearish bias.

ps: USA main indexes don't usually make new all time highs when TLT and GLD are once again the only vehicles I track above all pivots.