Wow! This market is still really quite strong! Despite RSI reaching near fully overbought (70+) on SPY at 69.25 on 4/1; ES fully overbought 3/18-22 and again 3/30 and 4/1 at 71.86; and SPX like SPY fully overbought on 4/1 at 70.36, just a 2 day minor drop to send RSIs down to high 50s then race back to highs! Any bearish adjustments the last 2 days got crushed.
Also note, NYA held near AprP test and jumped so that is a quite bullish response to the 1HP selling we saw the last 2 days. NYA also below.
Oil, ugh, right idea wrong vehicle. Original idea was to hold runner portions above Q2Ps. Exactly right idea - on CL1 continuous contract, which I was not emphasizing compared to the current K contract which broke down.
OK so what from here? Look, one of the key benefits of pivots is you know *exactly* where you are wrong and so just cut the position. I have had several wrong ideas this year, but most of them have been gone for minimal % and usually out the next day. Whereas, the DIA positions I recommended on 2/12, have not yet said sell. :) I did shuffle the adds late February, but once bounce scenario back on, I have not said sell those either. SOXX cleared 1HP 3/1, again, no message to sell. Original gold positions, have not said sell (just the adds). Only TLT did I make this mistake with shakeout below 1HR1 on 3/11.
So with that in mind, again sharing thought process here:
EWG short from yesterday, simple, cut! ie, reason for trade below Q2P, today back above, OUT.
EWJ short from 4/1, OK to hold with a tight leash. Decent up bar from YS1 today but still under purchase price.
QQQ if you took that as last bullish add last week it was better to hold it - above all pivots and not into any resistance yet. But if you cut, that was mistake. Always OK to get back in if reason for cutting position no longer valid!
XLF mentioned possible short for the bears, easy cut with hold of AprP today.
Oil cut runner unit(s) and reversed small short, sigh... i was wondering about a fake-out shake-out per yesterday and that is what happened. CL1 best signals, note to file! Reverse back to small long but still under AprP as well as YP and HP so not big size here.
TLT back to scratch OK to hold above all pivots but looking vulnerable; also rejection from AprR1.
EEM thought cut yesterday with negative action on 1HP, AprP and D200MA; if you want some emerging market exposure, have to get back in. It is very hard to get back in something at higher price that you just sold, but, like I mentioned yesterday, best to admit mistakes, go with the flow, and think about risk-reward. Risk is another drop under AprP and can cut again. Reward is move above long term pivots for easy long term hold. We'll see! If you get chopped a few times on the same position then give it a rest but that hasn't happened here quite yet.
Lastly XLE idea from this morning very good r/r setup here. Idea valid above the AprP. This will likely move along with oil.
