4/19/2016

SPY tagged its AprR1 of 210.10 today, the level I have been pointing to as a minimum before a top of more significance. ES and SPX levels are a bit higher, so it is also possible for SPY to clear and still have some rejection on AprR1 from those vehicles. 

Might this be a trading high? Now the chances have increased, especially with the near tag of DIA on AprR1, and IWM on AprR1 too. VIX and VIX related indexes aren't on any levels, but VI futures current K contract near tag of YS2 AprS1 combo and XIV AprR1 rejection both increase the chance too (my logic being the ideal turn has both stock index / ETF / futs AND VIX or VIX related vehicles on pivots). 

But the ultimate more important top should come on larger levels than just monthly. Of course anything can happen, and maybe the market continues to power up tomorrow, but right now the ideal move is pullback from the AprR1s before another move higher to Q2R1 / 1HR1 / YR1 major resistance area 214-217 on SPY.

It also doesn't hurt that we are just +1 trading day from the last timing window 4/15-18. Feel free to ignore this, but the last time we were 1 day from a pre-established timing window of 4/8-9 and on pivots was 4/7, and that was the key low of the month so far. 

I am not really doing detailed recommendations for strategy, and interestingly GLD/GDX is doing quite well along with the stock strength and TLT is holding up fine, but if following bullish scenarios of the past 2 weeks then you would be emphasizing longs. A general hedge here using your vehicle of choice (vehicle weaker under pivots for short, VI futs, XIV / UVXY, index puts, inverse ETFs to hedge out longs based on the AprR1) is very decent risk-reward idea.