12/29/2016

While USA mains flat-lined, there was interesting action in the $USD and emerging markets. This gets me thinking about basic scenarios for early 2017:

Recent leaders like USA financials, small caps and $USD take off up again, while safe havens and emerging markets are weaker (of course I'd be happy with this one, and most market participants at this point would be too);

OR, slightly frustrating, safe havens get asset allocation re-balance support for a bit, and the recent leaders pullback more (manageable);

OR, more painful for most, $USD drops, EURUSD rallies and everything that has done very badly recently - like China, India and emerging markets all rally, while USA stocks are sideways at best and possible lower (annoying).

I have no idea what will happen. Currently long the leaders and somewhat hedged, and again losing gains on FXI short. Using typical new entry criteria, very few things qualify among the ETFs I track. The contenders are:

EFA as a short
INDA as a small long, almost (needs more gain above 2HP)
EWZ as a small long (on 12/28)
GLD as a long (not great setup, no rising MAs)

For today I will wait and do nothing. I may take off hedges and go more long tomorrow. Just a hunch on 2016 in reverse. If wrong, then I'll suffer with the market. It will also free more capital up for new positions. 

SPY as usual, then EFA, INDA, EWZ, GLD below, all in new entry chart format with pivots only (no support or resistance levels).