12/19/2016

SPY and other USA main indexes are still under recent resistance, but on the other hand, no follow through to drop that started last week. VIX and XIV in particular are making the case for a breakout above. I'd believe that a bit more if sentiment wasn't so high.

Adjustments - currently quite defensive and gains from IWM hedge are about gone. As a hedge, however, we're more concerned with downside protection than trading gains - the best hedge is one that doesn't cost too much. At this point I'll just say continue as long as IWM is below its YR2 on daily close (see chart below). 

Short FXI is working but a small down bar on the D200 is a partial take. This may or may not be correct, who knows - but this locks in some gain and shifts portfolio a bit more long.

At the same time I really don't like holding the RSX long given the weekly chart. Let's take the gain on that. 

Heading into today:
3 IWM, 1 DIA
3 XLF, 1 SMH
1 RSX, 1 QQQ
= 10 units or 100% long

3 IWM short hedges from 12/12, stop is daily close above YR2
2 FXI shorts from 12/12 & 12/14
= 5 hedges / shorts = -50% short

After adjustments:
3 IWM, 1 DIA
3 XLF, 1 SMH
1 QQQ (watching to add)
9 longs = 90%

3 IWM Short hedges from 12/12 near open, stop is daily close above YR2
1 FXI short (taking gains from later entry)
4 hedges / shorts = -40%

Still 50% net long. As soon as hedges come off it will be back to more long. We'll see. 

SPY, IWM, FXI and RSX weekly below