It wasn't a bad day to have recent longs on QQQ and hedged via IWM per suggestion in Total market view. But FXI short so far a mistake, as the Q4P didn't really have "look of resistance" and 2 hour charts already oversold.
I am bullish for 2017 based on the Yearly Pivot Promise but jeez, multiple index YR levels, option expiration, FOMC and sentiment would make an ideal trading high.
SPX YR2 near tag, INDU YR2 near tag, RUT YR2 already tagging and resistance, NDX YR1 tag, as well as recent sector leader IXM (S&P Financial Select Index) on YR3. Put-call 10MA on both daily and weekly has collapsed to extreme low levels. It is really all set up here for a trading top. We'll see what happens.
SPY not on yearly level due to 8/24/15 spike; otherwise, check out all the YR1/2/3 resistance below.
For positioning, if we think market is making a top here we want to lock in gains by taking profits, hedging or shorting. My preference is for hedging because even if this is a trading high I don't think it is a final high - we'll look to pivot resistance in 2017+ for that.
As of yesterday stock index recommendations were 120% long, 30% hedge & 10% short for 80% long total. 1 unit (10%) of that cost on FXI but recent QQQ longs have done well. Given NDX 100 tag, I think take 1 gain on that, dropping longs to 110% and total exposure 70%, and if FXI is visibly above DecP tomorrow then out.
If we do see selling Wednesday and want to further reduce, then XBI remains short option but maybe the thing to do is take some gains near INDU YR2, skip the shorts, and have some cash for a low key & restful holiday season.
Plus bonus put-call daily view with 10MA...
And weekly...