11/28: "Today is the first day with any bearish conclusions for USA main indexes since early November 11/3-4."
11/29: "Re-test of high area under resistance gives bears a shot tomorrow."
So again we see selling from key resistance areas on 4/5 USA main indexes. So the big question is whether this is for real, or simply some end of month profit taking that will jump back up tomorrow. I'm not sure and will be watching new December pivots as well as weekly and daily pivots tomorrow.
+s
SPY, DIA,VTI above rising 10MAs that could act as support; rising 20MA not far below for QQQ.
4 / 5 USA mains above all pivots and likely to open with that status for Dec (QQQ TBD).
Stall at resistance does not always mean drop; consider 9/10 to 10/10 on SPX, 6 times clear selling from YR1 but kept coming back. #7 was -5% drop from highs before key low 11/4.
Last but not least, VIX still below all pivots and XIV stall at YR1 but cannot say rejection yet. VIX & XIV together tend to be very right on markets and right now they are saying pause not rejection. This makes for an important decision regarding positioning going forward.
-s
Clear selling from SPY 2HR1 / Q4R1 combo, DIA Q4R2, IWM 2HR2 / Q4R2 combo, and VTI fading a bit under Q4R1 as well. This means we may have seen an important high.
These moves are coming just after RSI fully overbought conditions.
To watch
One cannot be too bearish if all USA mains open above all pivots on Thursday. That said, if more sentiment measures look extreme and/or XIV looks more like YR1 rejection, then more items on the TPP top checklist are ticking off.
If I were running a fund, then the solution would be easy; a partial ES futures based portfolio hedge is on based on reaction from Q4R1 at 2210 today. Even if limit order not in bang on the level then 2200-2205 cost basis very doable. This is a low cost (ie 10-15 points, or up to 25 points if giving more room) partial hedge. This locks in some gains on the long side while maintaining long positions.
If not a fund and/or access to 24 hour futures market, I already recommended on Monday to go from leveraged long to simply fully long. We can also consider a hedging trade here - watch the open tomorrow. I'd be more bearish if it wasn't the last day of the month and start of a new month with this environment could easily be up. That said, there is more political risk ahead in Europe and if EURUSD collapses through an 18 month low, DXY will shoot higher, and this will likely mean drop in the Dow.
SPY below, ESZ and SPX below... all look like selling. Let's see what happens in the new month.