Wow, that was ugly. For the last two days, when we tallied what had held and what broke, the bulls were far ahead. Not today.
SPX set broke Q4S1s
NDX set broke Q4P (very key for market)
INDU slightly under NovS1
RUT continues below YP (!) (also key for market)
NYA testing YP, VTI broke Q4S1
VIX soared above the 2HP (very very key) and this means trouble. Even though it is still under the YP, to see a huge lift above the 2HP is the worst VIX move on a long term level (YP or HP) this year. Any partial aggressive buys yesterday are off based on this. Due to the election, perhaps VIX stays elevated since any sane person holding longs will likely want some put protection for 11/8.
VIX was initially fooled by Brexit, meaning that it looked very bullish for stocks on 6/23, but then was clear trouble early 6/24. Yet 6/27-28 were very good tells for the rally that followed. My point here is that I like technicals on VIX very much, but perhaps with a massive wildcard like an election it may not be as reliable as usual. That said I will heed the message and won't take any further long stabs until i see a clear reversal under 2HP 20.07, or we see real panic and up near, but not above, 27.46.
If you are waiting for a proper buy signal then consider what is holding up better than others: SOXX just a small drop below NovPs, all above Q4P; EWZ similar; XLF holding up very well just a bit under NovP and will be first to recover status of above all pivots; EEM fractional break of Q4P, IYF (another financial index ETF) similar, just a shade below the Q4P. Note I don't count DIA in this category even though it has been quite stable, because it has been below Q4P since 10/11.
SPY, QQQ, IWM and VIX below.