11/10/2016

Fascinating. Markets are almost never boring - frustrating at times, elating at others, but (usually) not dull. 

We are seeing major shifts due to anticipation of policies under new leadership. Consider the TLT and XLF move that I posted about pre-open today. TLT just sank through its YP on without any attempt at bounce! Now I happen to think that a bounce is more likely in the works soon, but anything that stays below that YP level is still weak. 

Also consider Dow new all time high, and NDX/QQQ down! That is a change from the usual - perhaps not so odd this year 2016, but certainly 2009-2015 when tech was the leader nearly every time.

So much to say, but in interests of brevity, several major levels already in play:

SPX set YR1 area - so far pause not rejection, potentially very bullish to clear.
Tech set Q4P - needs to hold for the better bullish scenario. If lower this would be the second break, and possibly alter the market leadership for some time to come.
INDU set YR1 - finally made it! I've been looking for this level every since March when the YP cleared and then when the YP held again after Brexit. The highs in August came with 100 points and boy was that frustrating. I didn't quite expect the YR1 tag to happen in this fashion, but hey, DIA clearly above all pivots on 11/8 so the choice to enter was there. 
RUT set also back to YR1.
VTI back to YR1.

These days of multiple USA main indexes all on yearly levels are fairly rare. Add in TLT 1 day break of YP, and GLD nearly testing 2HP. 

Basic bullish is QQQ holding and the others clearing their YR1s.
Basic bearish is QQQ break and safe haven rebound.

Also, I noted yesterday that "EEM/FXI noticeably weaker however, both under Q4Ps as all 5 USA mains held or recovered." If you took that cue you cut EEM longs or even considered a short, as recent qualifications for a good entry were all met.

SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, VTI and EEM below.