10/4/2016

Don't say I didn't warn you.

GLD Monthly chart, 10/1: "This looks more threatening with falling 50MA (purple) acting as resistance."

TLT Quarterly chart, 10/1: "Red bar close back inside BB after being outside suggests down or limited upside to the Q4 BB."

Total market view 10/1: "While INDU is lagging, in general long term charts look bullish for USA stocks and a bit more negative for the safe havens TLT and GLD."

SPY Daily 10/3: "All this is bullish action for stocks. But I don't totally trust it, because we had an ISEE daily spike reading and that means the crowd is too optimistic."

Result was GLD massacre, TLT down sharply, both enough to spook stocks into a drop. What now?

It could be worse - SPY held Q4P exact, QQQ still strong above all pivots, and VTI holding Q4P as well. Also, VIX and variants seem unconcerned which points to yet another comeback for stocks. But DIA Q4P acting as resistance is not so great, and YR1s are again looking more like resistance for SPX and RUT, as INDU continues the decline from a near tag of YRA in August as well.

SPY below. If Q4P goes and VIX shows trouble, I will be thinking Q4S1 down near 209.

ps: While not a spike reading like 10/3, ISEE crowd is still too optimistic for what is happening.