On 1/5 I recorded a video blog post about the basic big picture move for SPY in 2016. Above the YP means the YR1; below the YP means the YS1. The very next day the YP at 200.01 broke and worse was clear resistance. This started to target YS1 186.25, about -6.8% below the pivot. Quite a bit of that was done already today, with another sharp drop. At this point it is difficult to imagine NOT seeing the YS1 and the real question is whether that will be it for this year.

Yesterday I wrote: "The next support on this chart is JanS2 at 193.70" which was near the low of the day at 193.59. Will this be good for a bounce? Perhaps, but if not the next support is Q1S1 at 191.44. Regardless, historical data shows a very good chance of seeing the YS1 unless SPY closes above 200.01.

It's ugly out there. SPY, DIA, IWM and NYA area all well below the YPs; only QQQ remains above its YP at 104.11. But some of that is the influence of the August 2015 spike low on the pivot level, as the NDX cash index and current NQ futs are below their YPs. Maybe QQQ has a shot, but this breakdown has been so brutal I doubt it can save the market like 2015 and 2011. A stable market would have held the NDX YP along with the ES and NQ YPs that broke down in a big way last night.

Meanwhile, the only ETFs I see above Q1Ps are TLT, GLD, and VIX. Ugh.