For the 2nd day of 2016, SPY held its YP (yearly pivot) at 200.01. The low of the day was 200.05 - not a coincidence! However, it is still stuck under the Q1P (first quarter pivot) at 201.55 and that will have to clear to get a better bounce.

I recorded a video today for a new blog post on 2016 so far. Here's the key point. If SPY can hold the YP 200.01, then there is still a good chance of seeing the YR1 (yearly resistance 1) 217.63 at some point in the year. That is a nearly 9% gain above the pivot. But if the YP breaks, the odds shift to YS1 (yearly support 1) at 186.25, or a nearly 7% drop. Look for the large crosses in the chart below - SPY is sitting on its YP the last two days, with all that room above to 217, and quite enough room below to 186 to get out of the way.

In other news, DIA slightly cleared its Q1P, but QQQ broke its Q1P (it had held yesterday) so that about evens out. No change to IWM and NYA pivot status.