SPY bounced from JanS3 today and put in the best rally of the year so far. Is this it? Again, I don't know what will happen tomorrow but can offer two basic guidelines:

1. As long as stock indexes, ETFs and futures are *below all pivots* the trend is down and markets are vulnerable. So, the indexes which will recover pivots first are QQQ YP at 104.11 and especially NDX 4373. So far this hasn't happened. I am prioritizing the cash index because the QQQ level is lower due to the massive 8/24 spike low. Adventurous traders / investors can add tech back with a daily close above the QQQ YP, but you'd want to see the NDX YP clear quickly and then hold as support.

I'm the first to admit the discrepancy between the cash indexes and ETFs is quite pesky for the pivot technique this year; best I can do is monitor and see which vehicle gives the best signals. Last fall on the lows it was the futures contracts on ES & NQ that gave the best signals (better than cash indexes or ETFs) which may have also happened today.

2. The more yearly levels that test and hold on a low, the more chance of a significant turn. Today we saw:

SPX YS1 1896 break and recover; ES YS1 at 1866 test within 5 points and hold
COMPQ YS1 4455 nearly test and hold; NQ YS1 4130 near the exact low of the day, only 6 NQ points
NYA YS1 9350 test and hold near exact

In addition, the TLT YP that cleared yesterday slightly was rejected today.

So, despite my blog post of yesterday, bounce has a shot here - but as long as market leader TECH is below YP on every index & vehicle (NDX & COMPQ cash indexes, QQQ ETF and NQ futs), it is still a bearish environment.

Sometimes the market just doesn't give a clear answer on one side or the other and we come back the next day. As of 1/14 close, both conditions 1 (bearish) and 2 (bullish) were met. Let's see what happens tomorrow. SPY, ES and NQ charts below.