11/12/2015

11/9: "SPY and ES broke their Q4R1s (red crosses) today, which is short term bearish until recovery. [...] If it were me managing a pivotal portfolio, I'd hold USA winners from 9/30-10/6 buys and put on some much weaker index hedges via EEM, FXI, PIN, RSX and EWZ."

11/11: "SPY and ES look more bearish today despite low volume since we see clear resistance at the Q4R1s (red crosses). This increases the chance of test of support at the 2HPs (orange dots)."

Check on both comments! Today SPY reached the 2HP (orange dots) and broke, which is even more bearish. The Pivotal Perspective was putting on hedges on 11/9 to cushion the blow; the average percent drop from 11/9 open of the 5 vehicles mentioned above slightly exceeds the drop in SPY and QQQ for the same time period.

Whether adding hedges or reducing longs, cutting exposure on 11/9 was the right idea - and the crystal clear move using pivots. 

A lot of big levels are now in play: SPY 2HP (orange dots) at 205.83 broke today, ES 2HP 2039 testing, SPX 2HP 2059 also broke; watch the futures but 2 out of 3 broken is bearish; QQQ YR1 (large red crosses) / 2HR1 (red dots) combo 111.90 and 1HR1 112.36 respectively could save the market yet again; DIA also broke 2HP (orange dots) today, IWM testing YP (large orange crosses) 114.85 again. NYA was the early tell on this drop really spending only 2 days slightly above its YP (large orange crosses) and then seeing the level rejected. I cannot post all charts mentioned so limiting to SPY, ES and NYA today.

Lastly, VIX is confirming the SPY / SPX break of 2HP by rising above its 2HP at 17.82 (chart not shown). This means the Pivotal Portfolio would be reducing USA index longs in addition to maintaining the hedges already placed on 11/9. Watch the VIX YP at 20.17 from here.