Daily comments made it clear that there was potential for a major turn. I outlined criteria for a partial long exit days in advance on 1/24, and those criteria were met on 1/29. Special timing post on Twitter from 1/24 recommended UVXY as volatility set to spike. 2/1 added to bearish conclusions for next near term move.
1/23/2018 Daily comment: "There are so many indexes on or near YR1s the situation calls Jan-Feb 2016 to mind, as the only difference was that they were on YS1s. Both years started with a directional bang, reached yearly levels, and then... we shall see. That is our task now, to assess the chances of a turn here."
1/24/2018 Daily comment (thinking ahead): What to do, especially if VIX is above its Q1P and JanP tomorrow? And then even more so when it lifts above its YP and doesn't look back - something we haven't seen since 8/2015.
- Take gains on longs that are having clear rejections from resistance levels.
- Bonds are not working as safe havens this year, so avoid.
- GLD & GLD are popping on these days especially with $DXY down - watch for these setups or add (site recommended GDX 12/13 then cut mid Jan; GLD from 12/26, still holding personally).
- UVXY - I've already had one great trade this year and started talking about this yesterday on the site and twitter. I think this will be a favorite setup this year as VIX low is the 2nd trading day of the year and XIV high is not far after on 1/11."
1/24 Tweet from @pivotalmomentum: Special timing post: volatility cycles picking up 1/25-2/2 maybe through 2/15. This does not mean i am saying stocks down from here. There are a lot of YR1s to watch though. Yup back in UVXY already."
1/29/201 Daily comment: Long exit recommendation, "Some of the bullish conclusions of Friday were undone today - most especially in VIX. I have rarely regretted taking defensive action with VIX exploding above all pivots. Today met criteria for taking partial profits per Daily comment of last week. (quoted 1/24 notes above) ... All seem like good steps except metals have since looked more toppy. UVXY was up 14% today, and although some of that was a gap there were still large intraday gains."
1/30/2018 Daily comment: "A lot of long term level rejections today, so it was rather pleasant to have taken major defensive action yesterday by significantly reducing longs and adding to UVXY hedge."
2/1 Tweet: "YR1 rejections brewing on $SPX / $SPY, $NDX / $QQQ, $INDU / $DIA. Weekly charts on continuous futures with yearly levels only on $ES_F, $NQ_F and $YM_F."
2/1/2018 Daily comment: "Stalemate continues with YR1s threatening on 4 of 5 USA main indexes but without serious damage. In particular, YR1s on SPY, QQQ and VTI look like very clear resistance with a weak advance and tag of the level. Usually this means the next move is down. In addition, though XIV held Q1P, clear resistance on the FebP. Combining this with VIX above all pivots adds to bearish conclusion for risk."
