Most market participants are rather surprised at the market strength since the Brexit drop - but not here!
6/25 Total market view: "To translate, market in serious trouble if VIX moves and closes above its YP." That did not happen! VIX stayed totally below its YP on 6/27 when stock indexes were going lower and INDU held its YP.
6/27 SPY Daily: "The market has reached crucial areas. I know you may read this kind of thing often in other technical analysis but with pivots when I say this I mean it. Big levels in play from here all within 1% give or take: SPX, SPY, ES YPs, INDU & COMP, DIA, YM YPs, VIX YP. ... I have said from March... bull more likely than bear with INDU above its YP at 17048. So this level really must hold for a hope of a bullish resolution here."
6/28 SPY Daily: "And that was a major league hold! Yesterday I pointed out the big levels - SPX and INDU set YPs along with VIX YP. Monday's low was 15 INDU points above its YP level, a near perfect hold. And this time VIX got it right, closing below the YP yesterday despite stocks dropping much more. When factoring in VIX, the last time we had a day like this was 2/12..."
6/28-29 SPY Daily: "When factoring in VIX, the last time we had a day like this was 2/12: a big drop down from the YP (or near enough) in combination with holds & recoveries on several major indexes. Now this time could be the key buy for the rest of the year, or it just be a bounce before a failure. But near the big levels when VIX confirms is usually the place to take a stab. ... Stab long that is. Most aggressive buy on 6/27 based on VIX and focusing on any index that was holding pivots relatively better would have gotten you long on: INDU on USA mains, MDY midcaps on other USA, then SOXX and SPY; also oil based on CL1 continuous contract perfect hold of YP, and EWZ, then maybe some RSX. A fund could have made the quarter on aggressive trades off these levels the past 3 days with DIA +3.7%, MDY +4.4%, SOXX +5.4%, SPY 4.0%, CL +8.8%, RSX +6.5% and EWZ topping them all with +9.6% in 3 days!"
6/30 SPY Daily: "You know you have a method that works when a statement made mid-March applies almost perfectly more than 3 months later. From 3/12/2016: "Bull alive and kicking above 17138 (the highest of the INDU pivots, the Q1P) and still more likely than bear with INDU above its YP at 17048." Monday 6/27 low was INDU 17063, just 15 Dow points from the YP. I have seen this before - whether it is end of QE, Ebola, or Brexit - if the leading index holds a long term pivot, the trend is alive."
6/30 E-wave: "If all this is correct then we are about to get the last best move of the bull market over the next year or two. This will mean a new 5 wave up pattern on the daily, that will comprise W3 up on the weekly, that is part of W5 on the monthly. Got all that? If not keep it simple from my view back in March to stay on the bull side of stocks with INDU above 17048."
7/2: "SPY above all pivots. Totally appropriate to hold recent longs above the Q3P of 206.88, and a target zone of about 215 to 217.65 includes the Q3P and YR1."
7/5 SPY Daily: "Most USA mains don't look too bad here, dropping on to Q3P / JulPs and so far holding as support. After hours, ES is even closer to testing the level."
7/6 SPY Daily: "Well you didn't have to worry because SPY ES SPX all held their Q2P / JulP combos near exact for a decent rally off the lows. Yet I'd feel better about the rally with IWM and XIV above their Q3Ps"
7/7 SPY Daily: "Waiting game for the jobs number but if IWM and XIV are correct then stocks will be higher on Friday. We'll see!"