This is more a collection of a few calls I have made several times pointing to higher targets - the first of which arrived today on SPY with a tag of the AprR1 at 210.10.
Did I have concerns with RSI overbought readings and NYA long term level rejection earlier this month? Sure. But the main point I made on 4/7 (which as it turned out was a key pullback low) was that it would be quite rare to have only 1 index on pivot resistance at a high - therefore, 4/1 probably not a big top. The condition to turn bearish was main USA index breaks of AprPs which did not happen on any of them.
From 4/7 post Was 4/1 a big top for the market? answer being, No. "Usually we will see multiple indexes on resistance levels for significant turns in the market. The larger the timeframe the more important so a big top "should" have several yearly, half-year or quarterly resistance levels involved, or a combination. That wasn't really the case here." And, "Only NYA tagging current pivots and showing rejection. This would be quite rare to a big top like this. But I will have to shift more bearish the more stock indexes break the AprPs, and the more we see the safe haven trade back on."
SPY, QQQ and DIA did not even test the AprPs, remaining all above throughout; IWM and NYA tested and held AprPs for the key low of April so far 4/7 with IWM also tagging the level on 4/12.
4/12 SPY daily: "SPY continues to hold above all pivots and positive for the year. I don't know if we'll see major resistance in April (up near 210) but oil rallying and NYA looking strong definitely gives this a chance."
4/13 SPY daily: "SPY continues to power up, holding positive for the year and now a move to AprR1 looks quite doable."
4/15 SPY daily: "Despite valuation (see this post) and seasonal ("sell in May") concerns, it is my contention that markets will see pivot resistance - which means at least monthly resistance, and much more typically quarterly, half-year, or yearly resistance - before we see a major top."
4/16 USA main indexes: "April completely above its pivot so far, and we should see pivot resistance for any significant top."