As far back as mid August in Big picture thoughts: "So far my top call on TLT is still holding. I'm not totally certain that it does, but with TLT below the AugP then hold your shorts if you took that trade. Regardless, if TLT can rally again, then I think this will be a *very* key high. It might be higher, perhaps a double top, maybe lower; but after this, I will be quite bearish TLT and bullish rates. I am basing this opinion on the Bollinger band and RSI action on TLT across timeframes, some timing work, and the aforementioned perspective on government intervention in markets."
And "So the translation of my historical and vaguely psychological references is this: maybe interest rates start to rise, and this is initially welcomed. Financials would rally, and money would come out of bonds into stocks. This will be enough to lift SPX into my ideal target zone of 2250-2500 from 2017 Q2 to 2018 Q2."
10/28 - Is Deustche Bank a good buy?: "Better financial buy: XLF. Holding up very well on drop, above all daily moving averages, and one of the few things still above all pivots (monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, yearly). Often what holds up best in drop is next market leader."
"Compare all this [DB] to XLF, one of the few things holding up the best in market weakness from August - September."
"[XLF] Above yearly, half-year, quarterly and monthly pivots. There are only a few asset classes with this status right now. May not take out highs in current range bound environment into election but I like this chart here and would look to accumulate. Hold above Q4P means about -5% risk for the position at 10/27 close price."
11/5 On entries: "XLF also a current leader, just a shade under NovP and entirely above Q4P this quarter. Not many assets in that category at this point. Needs to lift back above NovP and 50MA 20MA combo which would like turn MACD back positive; or drop lower near Q4P.
IYF Financial ETF also decent so far with just a fractional move below Q4P, doing much better than other leaders like QQQ, EEM and FXI all of which had bigger moves under Q4P. Financials may take a hit if rates move the other way but for now holding up quite well."
These two were the only things I selected as potential new entry setups last weekend!
11/9 SPY Daily: "Sectors of note: XLF/IYF new market sector leaders; XBI/IBB massive jump. EEM/FXI noticeably weaker."