Global stocks

Global stocks have been great sources of trading and investment opportunities. In 2015 while USA indexes were sideways China had a terrific rally and then huge collapse. These moves were trade-able on ETFs (thin volume but there). EEM had a huge drop in the 2nd half of 2015, and Brazil has led most of 2016 in percentage return among country / index / sector ETFs.

There are a lot of possibilities but first let's divide between developed and emerging. Developed often means Europe with a focus on Germany and then Japan; with key benchmark indexes of DAX and NKY. If you are an American retail investor, then the choice is EWG & EWJ versus hedged versions. I tend to not mention these so much even though I have at other times had a significant focus on Japan - the main reason is these tend to be correlated with USA indexes and moves are more a matter of magnitude than direction and timing. Mostly, correlated not always. Regardless, if you are playing anything outside the USA, it is best to emphasize pivots and technicals on what you actually own versus an index. 

I'm sure there are people out there who want to include all the available country ETFs and this could be a worthwhile exercise, but I think quite a lot moves together anyway and I'd rather stick to the main vehicles. 

Moving onto emerging markets the big ones I track are:

FXI - China via Hong Kong
EEM - popular emerging index
INDA - India
RSX - Russia
EWZ - Brazil
ACWI - Global benchmark, kind of like NYA functions for USA indexes
Shanghai Comp via XGY0 on trading view, close enough, and tradeable through ETFs

We could also get into China tech cos and corresponding ETFs because they are significant in market cap but let's save that for another day. 

The main point is if we are positioning and selecting 1-2 USA mains, 1-2 USA sectors, 1-2 global indexes, 1-2 currency commodity positions, then a selected 0-3 as shorts then we are at about 10 different vehicles maximum. I'm sure most people have more but to me this right for an active trading account. 

For each global vehicle - weekly technical chart, weekly long term pivot chart, and daily pivot chart. 

FXI
Monthly chart at several MAs clustered, so an interesting area to watch: 20MA 37.52, 50MA 37.92, 100MA 37.85.

FXI W
Long term pivots show short cover / speculative buy chance on the February lows, then partial long term buy in 2nd half above the 2HP. 

FXI D
Monety was made in July and August; chasing in September, the 3rd month above the monthly pivot, got you in at highs. Since the election it sold off but now come back to about even. 

EEM M
Despite the percentage strength of most of 2016, thi sis under falling MAs on the monthly chart (all falling slope except 10MA). 20MA currently 35.40 interesting to watch as we head into the monthly close. 

EEM W
Responding very well to pivots with 2014 high, 2015 high, and the 2015 and 2016 lows all on long term levels or near enough. 2HP in 2016 has acted as support and EEM was able to clear the YP and then hold. Post election break but coming back - key level to watch here at 35.45.

EEM D
And there is the YP on the daily chart with a falling 20MA right on top. That said, rising D200 has basically held after trading only 3 days below. No signal long or short here, interesting level to watch. If anything I'd try shorting against the YP since the 20MA and 400MA are both falling, but with risk health and safe havens weak I would not be surprised at attempt to clear. 

INDA M
Modi's cash exchange not working so well, but maybe this is a buy chance. 

INDA W
Getting out of the way of YP rejection saved some pain here. Back above 2HP would be a positive though. 

INDA D
Even if 2HP clears, most daily moving averages against a rally except recently stabilizing 10MA. 

RSX M
Crashed with oil and has had decent rally enough off lows, but not too zippy in the second half. 

RSX W
Attempting to stay above YR1. 

RSX D
Issue with shorting the YR1 is still above all pivots and all rising MAs. Considering other global indexes, RSX could be long 11/15 and now seeing what happens. 

EWZ M
Incredible percentage rally but stopped running into falling 50MA (also weekly 200MA). 

EWZ W
First sign of strength in early 2016 was a bottom above long term support, where everything else was testing or breaking YS1s. Currently trying to stay above YR1 after breaking 2HR1. 

EWZ D
Note bar of election under NovP where it has been above, and below 2 MAs. 

Shanghai Comp
Quietly holding M50MA along with M100, back above M10 and testing M20 at 3470.
 

SC W
Partial buy possible from 10/10 week above 2HP for the 2nd time. 

SC D
Pivots and MAs agreed in August that failed, but next time has been a very nice trending move. But with RSI mostly overbought from 11/11, no new entries up here. 

Emerging markets

Check the tag for previous versions.

Sum
SHC (Shanghai) big picture weak, but no Q2 or AprPs yet.
FXI weak and short candidate but testing AprP today, so trigger valid below that level.
EEM possible 1HP rejection would be negative, but above AprP and Q2P.
PIN not doing much this year; also above both AprP and Q2P.
RSX holding up well despite YP rejection; above 1HP and currently testing AprP, above Q2P.
EWZ similar holding gains despite YP rejection, above 1HP and well above AprP and Q2P. 

Bottom line triggers in this method are pivot changes of status. We want to be long what is above pivots and avoid or short what is below. If long EEM and 1HP rejection, then use AprP as deciding factor; also can reduce or hedge with FXI to lessen long exposure.

In some weekly strategy reports and oil I suggested taking some profits because oil hadn't cleared a quarterly pivot, but have some runner units since likely to be above the Q2P. So far that is playing out. Similar logic with any RSX / EWZ positions. 

In this set FXI still looking like best short of the bunch. RSX and EWZ are doing the best, and of course highly contingent on oil. 

* * *

SHC W chart limited bounce. For some reason for 4/1 not appearing on tradingview.com yet, so no Q2P or AprPs yet. 

FXI weak bounce too.

FXI D testing its AprP here with Q2P lower at the orange cross. Still looks like FXI can be used as a hedge if holding EEM positions, and if FXI breaks under AprP that gets you below 3/4 pivots. 

EEM W, whoa. That is just not what you want to see if long, a try and fail above the 1HP. To my view a blue bar close would look even worse than a smaller red bar. 

The AprP is just below current price, and the Q2P near the red line at 2015 close. So at least some medium term support nearby. 

PIN (India) strong buying from YS1, but no follow through. 

Dropping onto AprP here, with Q2P not far below. 

RSX YP rejection but 1HP holding now 4 weeks. Not bad.

Hard to see with current bar but right on AprP today. 

EWZ also holding a lot of gains despite 2 red bars just under YP. Also holding 1HP as support. 

EWZ well above AprP and Q2P. Huge doulbe RSI divergence on recent highs, but holding up well. 

Emerging markets

Shanghai (SHC), FXI, EEM, PIN, RSX, EWZ

Sum
China both SHC and FXI still weak and likely first choice for shorts in Q2. EEM has been doing well but paused on 1HP, interesting area to watch. PIN getting in gear but still well under long term pivots. Nifty/Sensex might be better gauges than the ETF but if you are reading this then assume USA audience and India ETFs are the easier vehicles to trade and factor in currency issue as well. RSX and EWZ have moved with oil up to YP levels; both slightly exceeded then dropped back under. Both are still showing some strength around 1HPs and will obviously move with oil.

 No immediate signal on any of these but EEM clearing 1HP would be reason to hold that if in, or consider as longer term buy although immediately running into YP makes that not the ideal setup. Red lines are 2015 close and you can see a few that jumped when getting positive on the year. 

For study note lows of year on: FXI YS1 near exact, EEM 1HS1, PIN YS1, and RSX YS1 (some 1/20 area others 2/11). Not bad eh?

SHC W chart stable along with all risk assets but weak bounce considering. 

SHC D chart that has been above MarP most of the month but stopped just under MarR2. It is likely that SHC starts next quarter below Q2P but might be above the AprP, we'll see. 

FXI W also weak bounce, although low of year on YS1 near exact!

FXI D chart well under Q1P, but soon we'll have Q2P as possible trade signal. 

EEM W chart low 1HS1 exact and rally to 1HP. Last bar red but note held last week open level. I think this is pause more than rejection so far.

EEM fading back under Q1P with RSI reaching OB about 3x. Was that it?

PIN W massive buying from YS1 but not much follow through. 

This will look better if above Q2P, we'll see.

RSX strong move along with oil from YS1 low to YP pause. Holding 1HP as support the last 2 weeks and still above despite the drop is a sign of some strength. But for now some resistance at the YP as well. 

Big jump when RSX went green on the year, and smart money taking profits on the Q1R1 exact with daily RSI showing some bearish divergence too. 

EWZ weekly bottomed before reaching any support level, due to how far down there were on last year's range. But fast move up to the YP with 1 bar just fractionally above, then back below; still holding 1HP.

EWZ D chart big jump on getting green for 2nd time. That is picture perfect RSI divergence on the recent high.