Some of the smart money sources I trust, especially Jeffrey Gundlach, have been on to commodity idea from the beginning of the year. I recently retweeted something similar from Paul Tudor Jones.
Keep in mind I am not simply jumping on bandwagon here as I have been thinking this way too from mid January: "Also, since commodities have been near the bottom of asset allocation models for many years, think this could be year for significant improvement. Not sure the best way to play this but will likely benefit RSX and EWZ."
EWZ and RSX still at the top of the leaderboard, both above all pivots and ~10+ YTD%.
Most of us aren't trading commodity futures so what are other good vehicles? For me that means base ETF with options and preferably 3x bull and bear versions from Direxion, though due to unpopularity of commodities this is more rare. Basically oil, gas and metals are the best vehicles. This makes me think the best move will be elsewhere.
USO oil
UNG gas
GLD is commodity yes, along with GDX and SLV but typically I consider these in safe haven section
XME could watch; limited options trading, no levaraged ETFs that work well
DBC commodity index that mostly moves with oil (though at top of list for ETF commodity volume, not a lot of options so not very tradeable)
DBA agriculture index, also not many options
Leveraged ETFs do exist but lower volume so watch the spreads before buying. Also it seems most of these closed to new creations from 2011 so that cannot be a good thing.
There are individual ETFs.
CORN
WEAT
SOYB
CANE
TAGS (low volume)
NIB
DBB
JJC
Unfortunately time does not permit me to track these in detail. Let's look at DBA for agriculture in general.
Q
Up bar after doji; 2016 Q3 also tried but failed. This is a painful downtrend below all falling MAs but rallying from low level.
M
Buying at last monthly close low, and starting to poke above 10MA. Needs to rally past 20MA to really get moving. Could happen though.
W
MACD going positive has been a long string of disappointments. Usually these have occurred at falling MA resistance. This time 20MA has flattened out and rallied above 50MA. Still near upper BB where many rallies have failed.
DBA W
The difference this time is The Pivotal Perspective. DBA starting to move above all pivots for only the second time since June 2016. Before that was 2014 rally. It would need additional gains to really look like lift-off from the YP.
D
Jump above all pivots on Friday. If you look carefully you can see sign so of pro accumulation 1/24-2/27; dips quietly bought, support holding. Granted the RSI and volume spike doesn't help the bull side, but if move is for real the YP will continue to act as support.
