Last week: "Bottom line - This is real pro selling from yearly levels so caution is warranted. If you heeded my advice you are not too bothered by this drop but instead glad you took some gains (or are hedged) and now have money to shopping when the setup looks good. Watch the VIX as noted above. Buy what is going up, or recovers sooner than others. Best days for action are when multiple indexes all saying the same thing, along with other technicals and perhaps a sentiment extreme."
VIX note also from last week: "The VIX has worked extremely well confirming the real trouble and when it is ending, so I will continue to use that to guide my decisions. Watch the reaction from Q3P to 2HP 18.28 to 20.07.... Simply stated above 20.07 means real trouble for the market, while a slow-down of the move up and subsequent rejection of that area could be a decent stock buy setup."
Results: VIX high of week was 20.51 with a big drop from that level and back under the Q3P 18.28 on Monday. See safe haven section for the charts. From there Q3P acted as resistance with closes of 17.85 and 18.14 on Tuesday and Wednesday, then moving lower Thursday and Friday. Correspondingly, USA main indexes have held SepS1 or S2 area (SPX, INDU, NYA/VTI all S2s, NDX and RUT S1s). But only Tech showed strength by reclaiming status of above all pivots. SOXX as a sector continued to lead also above all pivots, and though Biotech XBI is below YP it is above 3 others (2HP, Q3P and SepP) and moving well.
Basically if you bought anything last week there was very clear that Tech (QQQ, SOXX or XBI) is the only game in town. On the global side maybe FXI or INDA, FXI like Biotech above all pivots except YP, and INDU currently above all pivots as well and holding YP the last several weeks. EEM could not reclaim its SepP.
Sum
One cannot be too bearish with VIX holding Q3P to 2HP (18.28 to 20.07) area as resistance and Tech set back above all pivots and knocking on door of new highs. That said, other indexes while forming lows on SepS2s or SepS1 in case of RUT / IWM have not delivered the same move. Monthly SPX and INDU charts look like test of previous high area when you factor in monthly close levels. Right now I give edge to bulls though dislike current look of weekly charts with SPX YR1 rejection still in play. This week FOMC will probably be the big move, then focus on election.
Bullish scenario (slightly preferred but I am flexible) - Market rallies into FOMC and beyond, tech continues to lead up, other indexes back to or above SepPs.
Bearish scenario - Tech set fades back under SepP, VIX back up (anything above Q3P 18.28 is bad and above 2HP 20.07 is real trouble).
Bottom line - We will see what FOMC does this week. Despite Yellen's Jackson Hole moment that was taken as hawkish, in the same speech she opened the door to QE4 so I will be surprised at a very hawkish tone this week. Probably things stay the same, ie, maybe next time. Even if market rallies into FOMC I still think upside limited to INDU YR1. But if bearish scenario unfolds as VIX resumes rally there is plenty of room for index drop with no pivot support (not counting other monthly support levels) until SPX Q3P at 2170, INDU Q3P 17720, RUT YP 1170, then VTI Q3P 105.86.
Pivots
USA main indexes - Tech set strong above all pivots, and semiconductors (SMH) and biotech (XBI) both moving well. Otherwise, recent lows on SepS1s (RUT / IWM) or SepS2s (SPX set, INDU set, NYA/VTI) and still below SepPs.
Safe havens - TLT fast drop below SepP on 9/8 to low bang on 2HP 9/15. VIX held 2HP - Q3P resistance area last week, for now bullish for stocks.
Global and other - Oil weak, USO below all pivots and CL1 contract breaking YP, Q3P and SepP combo; only 2HP remains as support. FXI (China) pullback didn't even reach SepP, very strong; INDA (India) above all pivots. Per this post, watching DXY for real conclusions of FOMC. Anything above 2HP means market believe rate hike soon. Below that and dovish again.
Other Technicals
Monthly charts on USA indexes so far trying to hold prior high support area (close highs, not price highs). However, weekly chart configuration not great.
Valuation & fundamentals
Citigroup Economic Surprise back into negative may mean FOMC doesn't hike but that should limit upside at the same time.
Sentiment
Bullish extremes of August have been worked off, but at all approaching bearish extremes yet.
Timing
Missed 9/7 key high
8/29-9/2 - admittedly wide; so far stock pullback low and TLT high
9/12 - pullback low on a some ETFs (9/12 close, 9/13 price low)
9/16 - ?
9/23-27