Weekly strategy sum

Basic bullish is follow through gains with INDU remaining above all pivots so holding Q1P 17138, SPX holding YP 1HP Q1P support all 2014-16, and NDX above 4373. 

Basic bearish would be reversal from last week, and the first signal would probably be SPX back under 2014 and then ES re-testing 1988, INDU back under Q1P 17138 and NDX rejection from 4373. Seems less likely. 

Markets could also go higher and then return to support or have some mixed scenario with SPX below 2014 but INDU holding its YP again. Let's call that the bull / bear market line since INDU has been the pivot leader on the 2016 rally.

Main point is that markets have been quite healthy from all the YS1 holds and recoveries that happened early February. I won't list all the recoveries as virtually everything did this, but 2/11-12 lows were INDU YS1, RTY YS2, CL YS1, and HYG YS1, all very near exact holds. Now after 4 straight weeks up we are again seeing indexes above major levels on INDU etc and SPX etc with NDX almost there as well.

If these indexes stay above their big pivots then it is appropriate to be reducing or cutting the safe haven especially TLT below 1HR1  and buying more stock indexes, though if following this system on a daily basis you have already done this. Starter longs were 2/12 on DIA and oil, then possibly EWZ and RSX above FebPs from mid Feb if you held (or got back in early March) and now watching EEM, then a shuffle but more longs late February with USA leaders DIA and maybe SPY, in my view better to add via  the leaders so SOXX and/or DIA the last two weeks.

If stocks fade then it is simple to reduce some recent longs from the last two weeks, or can hedge out via shorts on weaker vehicles so that means is still below most pivots ie Q1P, 1HP and YP. Right now on USA that means IWM, then IBB, XLF and XLE though oil has been on tear so careful with the latter. 

Take a look at the emerging market vehicles since if DXY continues weak some of these should continue to pop. EWZ and RSX have been leading and above pivots, EEM testing, while FXI and PIN are lagging and well below levels so first shorts. The leaders are already overbought or nearly so and thus late adds at this point, but still worth consideration as trading vehicles in general. They have moved quite well as shorts last year and longs this year. 

GLD and GDX are a bit of tricky case as they have held up quite well during the stock rally, so probably better to view those positions separately with less idea of correlation ie stocks up gold 'should be' down. Watch the YR1s on both. 

Lastly if you like individual stocks you can scan for what has held pivots or is moving above pivots, but I just don't have time to track all the possibilities. Here's an example of a basic investing method using long term levels only