So here's a review of all the points made on this post from 2/13.
1. "INDU / DIA / YM YS1s, RTY / IWM / TF YS2s, NDX YS1, need to continue to hold for stock bounce; then the SPX needs to get in gear and recover its YS1 / 1HS1 1895-96 as well, along with NYA / VTI also recovering yearly levels. And of course, oil...."
Markets opened higher on Monday and on 2/17 SPX lifted above its YS1 / 1HS1 area of 1895-96, and NYA cleared its YS1 fractionally on 2/16 and went higher on 2/17. Basically, this criterion checked out for the bulls and it was easy to hold the INDU / DIA buy from 2/12.
2. "Basically if stocks are going to put in decent rally, we will continue to see a fade in the safe haven trades that have exploded the last couple weeks. If safe havens stay firm, for example, staying above the next weekly pivots, and USA stock indexes cannot clear those, or reach a measly weekly R1 and then sharply drop, then the market could roll over."
Stock indexes were above WPs all week, and most exceeded WR1s although not all reached WR2s. On the safe havens, both TLT and GLD were below WPs this week; TLT spent just a few hourly bars under WS1 and recovered, and GLD ended the week near its WP as well without touching WS1. All in all, decent hold by the safe havens despite the stock bounce.
3. "Interesting vehicles to watch are anything that is poking above a monthly pivot. This is far from the case in any USA main or supplemental index, although if oil continues XLE will have the first shot. In world indexes, RSX will also pop on the oil trade and is just barely below its FebP as of 2/13 close, and selling in EWZ seems to have dried up with a much higher low forming and EWZ above its FebP on 2/13 close."
Both RSX and EWZ of these lifted above their FebPs (not the case with most USA indexes) and had a quick pop, but faded into the end of the week. I also recommended EEM this week as a speculative buy for the same reason. All 3 of these gave the chance for small quick gains that outpaced USA indexes on the bounce.
Note: aside from buying safe havens TLT, GLD and maybe some GDX, 2/12 on INDU / DIA and early this week for RSX, EWZ and EEM were the first times this year I have recommended any stock index buying.
4. "Big picture point is stage set for some stock bounce, probably hinging on oil. But the vast majority of stock indexes / ETFs / futures are still below all pivots, and most save havens are above. So let's not get too cute with the counter-trend idea. ... if this idea is correct indexes will put in a relatively weak bounce in the scheme of things then roll over."
So far most USA main indexes unable to clear FebPs. As long as this remains the case, USA main indexes below all pivots, the path of least resistance is down.
5. "This would mean playing a bounce lightly, look to add back safe havens on a pullback to monthly or even weekly pivot support."
That was the right idea of the week. All the long recommendations (DIA, RSX, EWZ, EEM, BTCUSD) gave a chance for a quick gain, and we didn't lose too much holding on to safe haven positions of TLT (could have even added back in) or full GLD position.
Check back tomorrow for weekly chart summary and the next strategy report!