People who work at Goldman Sachs are incredibly smart, have advanced degrees in economics, math, etc, from the best schools along with the advanced certifications, and all the data and computer tools at their disposal. But their "6 top trades" for 2016, 5 have already gone bust. No, I'm not making this up!
Meanwhile, following this blog:
1. Buying USA leaders ie NDX / QQQ and perhaps some SPX / SPY early October; as major pivots held and recovered. I was clearly bullish because it was obvious using pivots; over the course of 2 days 10/2-5 2015 SPY recovered 3 of 4 levels and triggered a buy.
2. Shorting a choice of weaker global indexes EEM, FXI, PIN, RSX, EWZ in November; all of these below all pivots at various points, and they were frequently mentioned as hedges. Some of these probably have taken some profits or out, some holding still today.
3. Shorting oil as early as 10/19, scratch or small loss near 11/3, shorting again 11/4-5 using simple strategy of a daily close below all pivots for huge gain.
4. Reducing USA longs 1/4-7 (most of which bought early October) as pivot status went from likely "open 2016 above all pivots" to 3 of 4 to 2 of 4 (ie mixed trend, no reason to be big long) on the actual open due to gap, and breaks soon after that; 1/6 SPY short possible under the YP aiming for YS1 which delivered; and/or putting on new shorts via IWM. Any remaining tech longs cut 1/7 (because that was the last index to break its YP).
5. Buying TLT or other bond vehicle 1/6+.
6. Buying GLD 1/25 and maybe GDX after that too.
If you doubt these calls please see the featured posts and when they were written, or go back and read the blog and my daily SPY / ES commentary.
So, take your pick. Simple and what works, or complex positions that depend on economic theory. I'm not against economics, but there is a crucial difference between economics and markets in how they function. Also, notoriously, once everyone on Wall Street agrees that something has to happen, it doesn't.