Well this turned out to be a good move and whatever I missed by reducing max leverage on 11/28 and then again on 12/12 on USA longs has been made up on this short. It was the best index asset to short the past week and nice to catch. I was quite right to add to the initial position of 12/12 on 12/14, but I also made a mistake and covered the later entry too early. So now a question - hold or take?
Let's do a full chart workup on FXI.
Sum
All timeframes are in downtrends below 20MAs and 10MAs on each, which points to holding short. Yet daily chart RSI is fully oversold and weekly chart outside Bollinger band are both fairly rare conditions which can lead to snapback rallies. The 2017 Pivotal Perspective as of now is that FXI set to open below the 1HP and Q1P, but still on track to open above the YP at 33.74.
Additional considerations: SHComp also has been dropping. Bitcoin soaring and AUDUSD tanking both show problems inside China.
Even though chance of bounce likely increased with RSI fully oversold, that breakaway gap is truly ugly and think the best thing is to hold and see what happens with 2017 pivots.
Q
Below 10 and 20MAs. No Fib (not shown) support, and still above lower BB. MACD on a sell.
M
Below all MAs. If it closes under the 10MA, it may force institutional selling in January.
M
50% at 33.57 might be additional level to watch. This is the entirely 2016 yearly range. MACD also turning negative at this level (Nov was slightly positive).
W
BB breakdown is fairly rare and can lead to some big snapback rallies. Or, I can wait until clear divergence. Back above W50 at 34.52 would be additional positive. RSI room to move lower.
W pivots
Not on any long term support.
D
Broke Q4S1 without any try to hold. RSI fully oversold but outside BB.
Current 2017 pivots (will change)
YP 33.74
1HP 35.41
Q1P 35.68