As of 12/10, I was recommending 120% long as follows:
3 IWM, 2 DIA = 50%
3 XLF, 1 SMH (semi conductors much earlier buy) = 40%
1 RSX = 10%
2 QQQ = 20% (from 12/7)
Changes suggested this week on SPY daily were:
12/12
3 IWM short hedges as noted in Total market view 12/11
1 FXI short
= 40% short / hedges, 80% net long, 160% exposure total
12/13
Take gains on 1 QQQ, down to 110% long so 70% net; hold -40% hedges and short.
12/14
Take gains on 1 DIA, down to 100% long and 60% net; add FXI short for -50% short, 50% net long, 150% total exposure.
12/15
No change.
12/16
No change.
Current
3 IWM, 1 DIA
3 XLF, 1 SMH
1 RSX, 1 QQQ
= 10 units or 100% long
3 IWM short hedges from 12/12, breakeven stop
2 FXI shorts from 12/12 & 12/14
= 5 hedges / shorts = -50% short
Net long 50%, total exposure 150%. See?
Next
Main question will be to go back to offense (back to 100% long or higher), defense (hold the hedges and shorts, though it is hard to make argument to be less than 50% long when all USA mains are above all pivots, or continue moderately long with more cash.
Based on FXI D200MA, may take quick gains on 1 FXI short. RSX is also giving us several reasons to exit - monthly 50MA, weekly 200MA, weekly RSI & BBs. It has been a great rotation out of EWZ long post election, but think I'd rather own DIA than RSX so if out of latter maybe will look to add back on former. Then there is the question of the IWM hedges. Simple solution is breakeven stop, but could also get out of some or all when 2 hour charts reach RSI oversold.
If we cover IWM hedges, then back up to net 80% long and 120% exposure; cover 1 FXI short would be 90% long and 110% exposure; exit RSX then 80% net long and 100% total exposure or in other words, 9 longs and 1 short.
Sizing limits
150% long
50% short
Maximum total exposure 200%
Currency and commodity
I am separating these out from a positioning scorecard because a reduction in dollar longs should not make one underweight USA stock market. Time may not permit a full version of both of these, so I'll continue to focus on stocks and mention these occasionally.