This was the question I heard over lunch yesterday from someone interested in markets. This is my take.
About the chart: Using the NYSE listed Deustche Bank AG because this is what gives the most history on Trading View. This may not be the best version but with prices going back to 2002 it is good enough. For the best chart we'd probably want to check a Bloomberg.
Sum
Although I like financials as a sector in rising interest rate environment, DB is already +30% off the lows and risk-reward for a bounce is not appealing. Significant resistance likely just above 14.71-78 (current upper daily Bollinger band which will change, and prior 2016 low), then all kinds of sharply falling moving averages on every other timeframe will make further rallies a struggle (moving averages with falling slope even more likely to be resistance).
Better financial buy: XLF. Holding up very well on drop, above all daily moving averages, and one of the few things still above all pivots (monthly, quarterly, half-yearly, yearly). Often what holds up best in drop is next market leader.
Ultimately with either trading or investing we are playing a game of risk and reward, and it is only the time horizon that differs. Sometimes what is beaten up does become the better risk reward play - a great example of that is EWZ Brazil, one of the worst possible country ETFs to own in 2014-15, to be the star this year up 82% from 2015 close to now. That sounds great but everything depends on timing, because if you bought what appeared to be a decent and very beat up low in March 2015 at lets say 30 - a nice pick at the time - you had to suffer a -42% drawdown and over 16 months just to get back to even. Who would do that on any capital of size?
Technical analysis does excel over fundamental analysis in spotting these moments when the long term trend is really changing, or what might be a turn to take a shot. This site has picked off the low of the year in oil and high of the year in bonds, without multiple attempts btw!. Both were huge turns on asset classes that had multi-year trends that seemed they would go on forever (search featured post section). I have also recommended GLD in late January, first mentioned EWZ & RSX in February, and more recently oil and $USD - these were not precise turns, but moments when trends seemed to be in early stages of changing (all these recs have given chance for gain with minimal or no drawdowns). I am not seeing that kind of movement on DB yet; or more accurately, it is too late to play the medium term bounce move, and long term trend is still negative.
Generally it is far easier to go with trends, and this is why I am always looking for the leaders. Do you want a 10% chance of 50% rally and 90% chance of seeing your investment go red? Or 75%+ chance of higher prices? That is my take on DB vs XLF here. Buy the leaders, even better if they have an exciting story (interest rates!), and buy more. That is how the hedge fund I worked with crushed it in 2013.
First standard technical charts in this order: quarterly (Q), monthly (M), weekly (W), daily.
Each chart has the same indicators: standard Bollinger bands (BB) in green, then simple moving averages. 10 (aqua), 20 (orange), 50 (purple), 100 (thin black), 200 (thick black), 400 (thick brown). Below the chart is standard RSI and then a tweaked MACD.
Q
So far Q4 lifting back inside BB (Bollinger band, lower green line) after small red bar gives bounce a chance. But really anything under 2009 low (grey line) is pretty terrible.
M
RSI picture slight divergence and shakeout followed by rebound "looks like" a decent low. But sharply falling 10 MA (10 period moving avg aqua line) and then resistance at 2009 high, and falling 20MA (orange).
W
Not good from risk reward perspective here, because the upper weekly BB is resistance, then the sharply falling 50MA (purple). Risk is the lower BB. Buy was better end of Sept at the lower BB and huge divergence on RSI but already 30% off lows is just late.
D
This is just unlikely to break outside of upper band and then falling 200MA not far away will likely be significant resistance. So bad risk reward here. Trying to pick off lows has better shot with RSI near oversold like end Sept when smart $ coming in.
Pivot charts
W chart, pivots only (orange)
Long term pivots only on a weekly chart for clarity - this was something to dump, not buy after March 2014. If trying to buy into bounce 2015 that failed twice and there is just no long term decent buy after 8/2015.
W with pivots, support & resistance
Now standard long term with pivots in orange, support in green and resistance in red.
Better above YS2 14.35 but given everything above on other charts not sure that holds.
D with pivots only
Smart $ above quarterly pivot for the first time in weeks 10-4-5 at 13.33-59. That was a decent risk reward setup but up to 14.49 may not sound like much but 8% higher than ideal entry.
Compare all this to XLF, one of the few things holding up the best in market weakness from August - September.
XLF W
XLF D with pivots only
Above yearly, half-year, quarterly and monthly pivots. There are only a few asset classes with this status right now. May not take out highs in current range bound environment into election but I like this chart here and would look to accumulate. Hold above Q4P means about -5% risk for the position at 10/27 close price.