From The Pivotal Perspective, the 2015 SPX high was near enough to 2HR1 and the low below the YP on 2HS1. 2016 has started with a massive break of the YP and very fast move to the YS1. Although SPY and ES are just above, SPX looks like break. So the big question for now - is this it?

With exception of parts of August and September 2015, SPX has been above its YP since the 2011 correction which was close enough to YS1. In fact, reducing exposure and/or hedging during the 7/25/2011 week with the rejection of 2011 YR1 and break of 2HP, then buying the YS1, was about the best possible move that year.

However, when we look at 2008 and 2001, both the first years to break the YP after long runs above, SPX reached YS2, bounced big, then went even lower. This means buying the YS1 was a loser. Buying YS2 would not have lost, but only gained if out before the breakdown.

Which will it be? YS1 save and higher? Fast move to YS2 for a key low? We will see.