I started this blog just over 2 months ago. In that time, using only this pivot technique and in very simple, clear English, have made the following five key market calls:
1. Caught the turn near end of September low and was very bullish from 10/2-5 on
The 9/30 Ringing the bell blog post - referring to the chance of a major bottom, not a top - across 4 main USA indexes of SPX, NDX, INDU and RTY. "These are the ingredients for major turns...." Then on 10/2 SPY daily post: "After holding 2HS2 1905 for 2 days, SPX again tested and held, then launched. Despite the bad jobs # it managed to close above the OctP at 1937. This was a huge score for the bulls and a a significant development per The Pivotal Perspective." Further confirmed by 10/5 SPY daily post: "Bulls win."
2. Signaled caution 10/13-14, but gave a great level to watch on QQQ to continue rally
On 10/13 I wrote in the blog post Cracks Appear said for the first time the big turn we were seeing significant signs of weakness. Instructions were: "So from here, QQQ 2HP, DIA YP and IWM Q4P are levels to watch." QQQ 2HP held near exact, and the rally continued.
3. Continued bullish until suggesting hedge and/or lightening long exposure on 11/9
11/9 SPY daily post said: "If it were me managing a pivotal portfolio, I'd hold USA winners from 9/30-10/6 buys and put on some much weaker index hedges via EEM, FXI, PIN, RSX and EWZ."
4. Caught the November low in SPY exact
I pointed out the level on November pivot on 11/13, and on 11/16 3 major USA indexes held NovPs nearly exact. 11/13 SPY daily post: "For now the level to watch is the NovP at 202.16 on SPY." Low of day 202.18! Then on 11/16: "If there was a place to take off some hedges (mentioned from 11/9) and add back on the long side, it was when SPY held the NovP (small orange dots), which happened along with QQQ & IWM holding NovPs too." From there comments have been bullish.
5. Gave nearly the perfect level to watch on TLT
In this video blog post on TLT from 11/7 I said to watch the yearly pivot at 118.44. The November low was was just .44 below and it never closed more than .12 below the pivot on 11/9. Since then the YP was support very clearly several days. Result was decent rally back up to medium term term resistance at the Q4P. I also pointed this out in process on the 11/19 quick TLT follow up post.
Not bad eh? There is a lot of noise about the market, perhaps now more than ever with social media, but the pivots are giving very clear indications and directions on the moves that matter.